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Housing market will cool down, real estate industry says


February 17, 2010

THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA — House price increases will moderate as the resale market becomes more balanced, says the president of the Canadian Real Estate Association.

“The resale housing market is becoming more balanced in a number of provinces,” Dale Ripplinger said Wednesday after the association released January sales statistics that revealed another big year-over-year price increase.

“A more balanced market is likely to result in smaller price increases going forward, with buyers in less of a rush due to an increase in supply.”

While Canadian home resale volumes slipped in January compared with December, they came in far higher than in January 2009, when sales fell to the lowest levels in a decade as the country suffered through the global credit crunch and recession.

The association said 25,671 homes were sold across the country in January, up 58 per cent from the same month a year earlier when consumer confidence hit an ebb, drying up buying and lending activity.

The national average price for homes listed on the association’s Multiple Listing Service was $328,537, up 19.6 per cent from a year ago.

The Kitchener-Waterloo Real Estate Board recorded 416 sales in January, 64 per cent more than a year ago. The Real Estate Board of Cambridge registered 140 sales, an increase of 32 per cent.

The average price in Kitchener rose 12.3 per cent to $278,825 on a year-over-year basis. In Cambridge, the average price jumped 16.3 per cent to $278,527.

The association’s report was issued a day after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced that tighter rules for mortgage borrowers will be introduced in April. He described it as a measure to prevent a bubble in the housing market.

Under the new rules, effective April 19, borrowers will have to meet the standards for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage even if the interest they will pay initially is lower.

Compared month-over-month, seasonally adjusted home sales were down 2.8 per cent from the strong levels reported in December, giving a sign that the housing market could be already starting to cool in some regions.

Nearly half of the drop was linked to a slowdown in housing sales in Ontario.

“One car doesn’t make a parade, so a few more months of results showing a cooling trend will be required before talk of a Canadian housing bubble begins to fade,” said association chief economist Gregory Klump.

Klump suggested that Flaherty’s new plan and the harmonized sales tax, which replaces provincial sales taxes in Ontario and British Columbia on July 1, could encourage more Canadians to enter the market in the first half of the year.

“It could take until the second half of the year before a cooling trend becomes evident,” he said.

Resale homes were still drawing a stronger demand for January, with 170,199 listed homes on the Multiple Listing Service in Canada, a decline of 18 per cent over the same time last year, the report said.

With files from Record staff

http://news.therecord.com/Business/article/672304

Flaherty sets stricter mortgage rules


Aiming to discourage borrowers from taking on too much debt, Finance Minister to impose regulations requiring bigger down payments

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is tightening up the country’s mortgage rules in a bid to stop borrowers from taking on potentially crippling debt loads.

Mr. Flaherty will announce in Ottawa this morning that he is imposing new rules that will dictate how banks approve mortgages, and that certain borrowers will have to come up with larger down payments.

While he is expected to stress that the government does not believe there is a housing bubble right now, his fear is that low interest rates are enticing some consumers to get in over their heads.

Specifically, Ottawa has been concerned that some borrowers who are taking out variable-rate mortgages will struggle with their monthly payments when interest rates rise.

That could damage the economic recovery if consumer spending suffers as homeowners dedicate a greater proportion of their income to mortgages.

Today’s announcement comes after informal consultations with mortgage market players, banks, and other experts. Late last year, CEOs of Canada’s major banks privately cautioned Ottawa that they had concerns about the level of mortgage debt some consumers are taking on.

The changes to be announced today will ensure that banks add an extra level of assurance into their evaluations when they are weighing whether to approve a mortgage. The goal is to ensure that the bank is comfortable that the borrower will be able to afford the monthly payments when interest rates rise.

A debate has been brewing recently about whether Canada is experiencing a bubble in housing, one of many asset markets around the world that economists are keeping an eye on as low interest rates and massive stimulus funds create hot pockets.

China last week took steps to rein in lending for the second time in a month, ordering banks to increase their reserves in a bid to slow the country’s property market and soaring global prices for commodities, which have been buoyed by China’s liberal lending policies.

The government does not believe that there is a bubble in Canada, but will act to stave off future trouble, sources say.

Many experts have cautioned the government to tread carefully and avoid taking too much steam out of the housing market, a key driver of the economy’s turnaround.

As a result, the government began looking to change the rules that govern whether a bank approves a mortgage borrower.

Ottawa deliberately stoked the housing market during the crisis. It bought more than $65-billion worth of mortgages from lenders, giving them a cheap source of funds and allowing them to lend more.

Like Mr. Flaherty, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has expressed doubt as to whether the months-long buying spree in housing will form a bubble.

The central-bank chief has warned since December that some Canadians may be taking on more debt than they will be able to handle when interest rates rise – which could be as early as July.

But he and other Bank of Canada officials have also suggested that a regulatory approach to cooling the housing market would make more sense.

Bank adviser David Wolf, speaking on behalf of deputy governor Timothy Lane last month, said that because the central bank’s mandate is to set rates to keep inflation on target throughout the economy, any tinkering in a specific sector, such as housing, is up to Mr. Flaherty.

“If the bank were to raise interest rates to cool the housing market now – when inflation is expected to remain below target for the next year and a half – we would, in essence, be dousing the entire Canadian economy with cold water,” Mr. Wolf said in Edmonton.

Former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge last week argued that because house prices are more likely to go down than up over the next few years, standards for insuring certain mortgages should be tighter.

The Canadian Real Estate Association is expected today to provide the latest figures on the home resale market, which has smashed records for months.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/flaherty-sets-stricter-mortgage-rules/article1469343/

Smashing the MLS monopoly

Critics lambaste the Multiple Listing Service as a throwback that penalizes prospective buyers. But what would happen if it lost its power?

Whether you’re a pewter thimble in search of a Baltic-like starter plot in Brampton or a top hat looking to live Boardwalk large on the Bridle Path, the rules of the Toronto’s game of Monopoly apply. If you want a listing on the Multiple Listing Service housed at Realtor.ca, you must have a full-service real-estate agent, or there’s no dice.

That’s what critics of the real-estate industry have charged for years. No matter how good or bad your agent is, or how much he or she actually bothers to help you sell or buy your house, there is almost always a 2.5-per-cent commission.

But this week, the federal Competition Bureau threatened to tip the game board upside down. After years of investigations and talks, it said it was taking the rule-making Canadian Real Estate Association to the competition tribunal for anti-competitive behaviour.

The problems begin with the way agents conduct business, detractors say. If an upstart broker wants in by offering lower commissions or services à la carte, those clutching their tidy piles of Monopoly money try to send the interloper to the Jail square – using lawsuits to shut them down, as the Toronto Real Estate Board has done.

Rejecting the Monopoly metaphor, traditionalists argue that there is a reason for freezing out the new players: unscrupulous discount brokers could exaggerate the square footage, for example. They say the current system protects buyers and sellers by ensuring they have the help, advice and full services of a seasoned real-estate agent.

In the event the competition tribunal rules against the old guard, the way Torontonians buy their homes could change. Instead of a system that imposes a one-size-fits-all approach, buyers and sellers who want their homes listed on MLS could decide what help they need from a real-estate professional and what they want to do on their own. Here are four scenarios.

Joe Fresh v. Holts

Lawrence Dale, the Bay Street lawyer who has been fighting the real-estate establishment for years on this issue, compares the prospective change to the advent of online stock trading. Anyone can use E*TRADE and the like from their homes, meaning only wealthier investors who need specialized advice pay big fees for their own stockbroker.

In other words, you are free to make wads of dough with your kitchen-table laptop, but you make your decisions at your own risk.

New discount businesses, such as Mr. Dale’s short-lived Realtysellers, which was shut down by the Toronto Real Estate Board in 2006, would offer a menu of services for different prices. Sellers would have the option of just paying a minimum fee to have their house listed on MLS, say for a few hundred dollars. Help with negotiations or offers or pricing your home would cost more. (Similar services exist now in the United States, where the rules have been loosened.) The result would be a more two-tiered market, Mr. Dale says. Some people would rely on discount real-estate outfits. Meanwhile, high-end real-estate agents would flourish, and perhaps even charge more.

This will replace the one-size-fits-all situation now, he says, where everyone buying or selling a house is forced to pay the same rates, no matter how useful the real-estate agent is.

“You want to go get your Chanel dress, you go to Holt Renfrew. But you don’t want to? You go to Joe Fresh,” Mr. Dale said.

Click, download, buy

While anyone is free to set up a website and list houses for sale privately, why go to one of those websites, or start your own, when Realtor.ca is the place where, according to estimates, well over 90 per cent of sellers and buyers do their business?

Some Toronto agents have tried to launch competing websites, using their access to the database. The idea was to create websites that offer more services, such as adding crime rates or school districts or other information, to MLS listings.

It is the Toronto Real Estate Board that controls access to Realtor.ca here. And TREB has been more aggressive than other boards by heading to court and shutting such operations down for violating the rules. (Among them was Mr. Dale’s Realtysellers.) While not strictly part of the current case before the tribunal, pressure has long been building on TREB to open up its data to everyone. If that happens, buying a home in the future could mean less driving in circles with your real-estate agent and more time navigating your laptop, or even your iPhone, for properties. A whole new sector of Web-based real estate services could flourish, like Redfin.com in the United States.

One day you may also be able to submit offers electronically, or search for nearby properties to compare prices on your own, which many buyers do today anyway. With the wealth of information on the Web, and a discounter who will list your house for a small fee instead of a large commission, more people might even consider selling houses on their own.

Or, the worst-case situation

Some veteran real-estate agents warn that upending the current system could be costly. Real-estate agent Barry Lebow, who has been in the business since 1968, said the possible changes would sacrifice the security and peace of mind it brings buyers and sellers. He compares MLS’s role to a stock exchange, an official body that protects investors by instituting regulations to control listings.

“Do you know how many fraudulent people would put properties on MLS because no one’s done diligence because some jerk is listing it for $300 a pop under some discount thing?” he said, adding that even well-meaning sellers inaccurately state the size of their lots and homes inadvertently. “The protection for the public is poor. Very, very poor.”

It’s still going to cost you

Even if it technically is against the rules, some brokers apparently will list a house for a small fee – say, $50, or for no commission at all, says Wilfred Veinot, an agent with Sutton Partners Realty Inc. But once the sale goes through, the buyer’s agent would take his or her standard 2.5 per cent. “There’s lots of agents out there who will take nothing,” Mr. Veinot said. “It’s very simple: The sign goes out, you get calls from neighbours. It’s just another form of picking up business.”

The prospect is new discount businesses promising everyone this kind of deal up front. Other services (running an open house, photographing your house) would also be available for flat fees.

These possible changes, and the addition of major companies breaking into the business of Web housing listings, could dramatically drive down what Torontonians pay the pros when they buy and sell homes. The average sale now involves 5 per cent in commissions, totalling an average of around $20,000. But discount brokers could do the same deal for as little as $1,500.

Still, this won’t actually make houses cheaper, according to an analysis by Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt. It may even stoke this hot real-estate market, driving prices even higher as buyers put the money they would have spent on a commission toward the cost of a new home. And according to Mr. Holt, this could more than wipe out any cooling effect on the housing market from the federal government‘s plans to tighten mortgage rules.

Either way, you will need still plenty of that pretty money.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/smashing-the-mls-monopoly/article1466678/


House sales off to strong start in 2010

WATERLOO REGION – Waterloo Region’s housing market shows no signs of slowing down.

Home sales in January maintained their momentum from last year’s strong finish, with both of the region’s real estate boards reporting strong sales.

The Kitchener-Waterloo Real Estate Board set a record for the month of January. It recorded 416 sales, 10 more than the previous high, set in 2006.

That’s a 64-per-cent increase over the 254 homes sold in January 2009, when the region, like most of the country, was staggered by a crippling downturn in the economy.

The Real Estate Board of Cambridge registered 140 sales last month, an increase of 32 per cent from the 106 homes sold in January 2009.

The large year-over-year increase shows just how much consumer confidence has bounced back from a year ago when the global financial crisis was giving everyone the jitters, said Bob Peace, president of the Cambridge board.

The strong sales in a traditionally slow month is encouraging, said Ted Scharf, president of the Kitchener-Waterloo board.

“These results show that there is definitely demand in the market and the traditional mindset of waiting until spring just doesn’t seem to be as strong,” he said today in a news release.

Low interest rates are fueling the house-buying spree, Scharf said. “So long as there are no sudden increases or threats to the rates, it will continue to be a driving factor in the coming months.”

The Kitchener-Waterloo board noted that January’s sales were strong across all types of housing and included 285 single-detached homes (up 66.7 per cent from January 2009), 73 condo units, 28 townhouses and 28 semi-detached homes.

Demand was particularly strong at the top end of the market, with 54 homes selling for more than $400,000 in Kitchener and Waterloo, 32 more than in January 2009.

The surge in higher price ranges helped push up the average price in Kitchener and Waterloo 12.3 per cent to $278,825, compared to a year earlier. Single-detached homes sold for an average of $316,913, an increase of 13.6 per cent from a year earlier.

In Cambridge, the average price of all the homes that changed hands last month jumped 16.3 per cent to $278,527.

The Cambridge board noted that the number of new listings fell 11 per cent in January compared to the same month a year earlier.

Economists predict higher interest rates in fall

ON THE MARKETS

Economists predict higher interest rates in fall
According to many of Canada’s top economists, higher interest rates – and debt servicing costs – may be just around the corner. Exactly when rates will rise is unclear and depends on who you talk to.

In its latest Financial System Review, The Bank of Canada judges that vulnerability of Canadian households to adverse wealth and income shocks has grown in recent years. “At present, Canadian household finances appear quite healthy,” Governor Mark Carney says, but it is the responsibility of households now to ensure that in the future, when the recovery takes hold and extraordinary measures are unwound, they can still service their debts.”

The Bank of Canada still maintains it will hold the line on rates until July of this year, and many analysts believe rates may start to rise in the fall of 2010, with some expecting a full three percentage point hike by the end of 2011. Here’s a summary of a few of the forecasts for where interest rates are headed over the next year and a half:

TD Quarterly Economic forecast
With home prices on track to grow a further 9.4% in 2010, the housing market will continue to support economic activity through much of the year, while rock bottom interest rates, improvements in financial asset and housing wealth, and a recuperating labour market will help underpin consumer spending. Home price growth will slow significantly thereafter, and residential investment is expected to detract from economic growth through 2011 and 2012. The slower rate of home price appreciation will also limit the rate at which household wealth increases, posing a hurdle for Canadian consumer spending. Second, households may be very sensitive to rising interest rates, particularly given the high rate of debt accumulation that occurred in response to record low interest rates. As such, an expected rise in short term interest rates of a full 3 percentage points by the end of 2011 is likely.

RBC Economics
In the near-term, with interest rates likely to remain low and the supply of homes available for sale relatively limited, we do not expect to see a sharp drop-off in sales activity. In the second half of 2010, however, the combination of higher mortgage rates and higher prices are likely to take some steam out of the market. In 2011, conditions in the housing market are likely to be relatively stable as the strengthening economy leads to job and income growth, which will offset some of the effect of the steady rise in interest rates throughout the year. The Bank of Canada will honour its conditional commitment to hold the policy rate at its current level until the end of the second-quarter 2010. Our baseline forecast looks for the Bank to raise the policy rate by 100 basis points in the second-half 2010. Another 225 basis points in rate hikes are expected over 2011 with the policy rate expected to settle at 3.5%.

Scotia Economics
For most other central banks, the process of normalizing the emergency level of short-term interest rates should begin around mid-year — led by the European Central Bank, but quickly followed by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, and belatedly by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Overall, we expect that the Fed and the Bank of Canada will raise their overnight rates 2 percentage points by mid-2011, after which they are likely to remain on hold as the U.S. economy adjusts to a slower growth trajectory. U.S. bond yields should continue to trend higher against a backdrop of a revival in private sector credit demands, a less accommodative central bank stance, and the massive financial requirements associated with large and sustained government deficits.

CIBC World Markets
The US consumer upturn has been more vigorous than we would have expected, a challenge to our view that a rising savings rate would sap growth momentum. But we’re still a long way from the big job gains needed to bring unemployment down on a sustained basis, and we’re sticking to our view that the Fed will stand pat until early 2011. Still, Canadians must be prepared for when interest rates inevitably rise. “They are emergency rates, they won’t be here forever,” says Benjamin Tal, CIBC World Markets.

BMO Nesbitt Burns
As long as these conditions continue, the Fed should remain on hold. We look for the unemployment rate to peak during Q1 and remain in double digits until the autumn, with core inflation drifting down consistently during the year. We’ve pencilled in a September rate hike start, by which time the outlook for resource utilization, inflation, and inflation expectations should be signalling a precautionary requirement to begin removing monetary stimulus, and also reflecting the Fed’s concern that keeping policy rates too low for too long “could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets”. Rate hikes are likely to be gradual and could easily be postponed into 2011 because of continued high unemployment and inadequate credit creation.

On The Markets” was published in the Febraury issue of the orea’s Edge Newsletter. This is it in its entirety: